Tuesday Topics – 2016 Primary A Yawner In Michigan
The first Tuesday of the month is here and unfortunately there is really no shortage of tough topics to tackle (say that three times fast) when it comes to public policy, affairs and/or administration in our great state as of late. Today, TJ Bucholz from our partner firm, Vanguard Public Affairs, joins us as a guest to discuss the Michigan Primary.
If you’re looking for something unusual to come out of Michigan’s March 8 primary election, be ready to be disappointed.
The latest polling data shows GOP businessman and reality television darling Donald Trump and former Democratic Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with sizable leads.
Even across the border, Ohio Governor John Kasich is now acknowledging even he won’t be competitive in the Great Lakes state.
So, it’s Trump and Clinton FTW in Michigan. A yawner.
There’s been some misunderstanding and confusion about Michigan’s primary process in the media as of late. Let me break it down for you: neither the Republican nor Democratic primary are closed. You get a ballot. It has a Republican side and a Democratic side. You vote in one of them.
The results are proportional as long as you receive 15 percent of the vote. If you are – say – Ben Carson and only receive two percent of the vote, you walk away empty and your party’s delegates are split among the top vote getters who exceeded the 15 percent threshold. For a guy like Trump – who might receive 40 percent of the vote – 40 percent of all GOP delegates are his.
So, in other words, Michigan will follow trends that we will see today in Super Tuesday primaries across the country. More candidates will drop out and the races will consolidate among fewer and fewer candidates.
No later than May, both parties will have gravitated around their likely nominees – Trump and Clinton.
And then we’re off to the races with bitter national partisan attacks and rancor from now until November. Tens of millions spent on political advertisements to sway voters in swing states. National news programs with their barking surrogates yelling and screaming. Literature choking your mail box and email inbox convincing you that one party is right and the other wrong.